Funding is the clearest signal retail has access to and most of the commentary around it is backwards. A high rate is not a top and a negative rate is not a bottom. Both are a price for holding a position, and prices tell you about crowding, not direction.

How I read it now

• Rate alone: almost nothing. It moves with the spot basis and it mean-reverts fast.

• Rate against open interest: something. Crowding is a rate that stays high while open interest climbs.

• Rate against realised volatility: more. A crowd paying to hold through a quiet tape is the setup worth watching.

None of that is an entry. It is a filter, and it mostly tells me to size down rather than to take the other side.