test

Hey

WHATSUP

Back on the desk after two weeks off. Plan for the week: majors only, half size until the first clean win, and nothing in the first fifteen minutes of the London open.

Funding flipped negative on two of the three venues I watch and open interest barely moved. That is not a squeeze, that is a holiday week.

BTCUSD

Levels I care about on gold this week: 2398 and 2441. Everything between them is noise and I have stopped pretending otherwise.

EURUSD 1H. The line under the lows has held every pullback for four days and price has just made a new high off the last touch. Long is on, stop under the line at 1.0742, target 1.0925. A close below the line is the exit. I am not averaging into it.

Up for the open, flat by eleven, and the afternoon belongs to somebody else. Four years of trying to trade both halves of the day taught me which half I am good at.

Asia session was dead again. Two setups, both faded, both stopped. Logged them anyway, because the log is the only part of this that compounds.

BTCUSD 4H. 60,750 capped it for three weeks and it went straight through without a retest, which is the part I do not love. Long is running from the break, stop back under 59,700, target 65,400. If it comes back to the level I add there rather than here.

Eleven weeks of logging every fill and the headline is boring: the spread was what they advertised, the slippage was not. Writing it up properly.

GBPUSD 30m. Three lower highs now, each one capped by the same line, and price has not been back to it in two sessions. Short stays on while that holds, stop above the last high at 1.2815, target 1.2690. One close back above the line and the line comes off the chart.

Position sizing is the only knob you actually turn

Every account I have blown up died the same way: position size drifted upward while the win rate stayed flat. Here is the arithmetic I now run before the London open. The three numbers Risk per…

If the reason I am in a trade takes a paragraph to write down, the size gets halved. The paragraph is the tell, not the setup.

USDJPY 15m, Asia. Sold the same 148.50 to 149.00 pocket three sessions running and it has paid twice. Target is back at 147.40. Posting the drawing so the third one is on the record whichever way it goes.

Sold the third monitor. Turns out I was using it to find reasons, not setups. Two screens, same instruments, better week.

Closed the gold short at the level I said I would, which almost never happens.

XAUUSD

Backtested the same breakout rule on five years and it printed. Ran it live for six weeks against a real spread and it did not. Writing up the difference, because the difference is the whole lesson.

USDJPY

The carry trade everybody described as free money last month is now costing eleven basis points a day to hold. Nothing about the thesis changed. The crowd did.

The range I have been waiting on for four days, drawn out. Still waiting.

One decision a week now. I make it on Sunday, I write it down, and Monday me does not get a vote.